P3 — Mormon Utah condition decay produces TFR drift toward 2.0
Tests directionality. As Mormon Utah urbanizes and labor-force-participation aligns with secular Utah, condition-count decays from ~5.5/7 toward ~4/7. Framework predicts cohort fertility follows. Falsified if 1990-2000 cohort sustains ≥2.7 with no condition decay measurable.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P4 — Anti-policy-replication: zero state-secular OECD cases reach cohort TFR ≥5.0 by 2040
Single-falsifier-suffices design. Tests whether the seven structural conditions can be reproduced in non-religious form via policy alone. Hungarian, Korean, Japanese, French, and Swedish policy expansions 2025-2040 are in scope. Kibbutz movement of 1950s-70s is the historical counter-case (briefly ~4/7 secular conditions, did not sustain).
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
P6 — Anti-prediction: no secular kibbutz-revival case reaches cohort TFR ≥4.0 by 2040
Single-falsifier-suffices design. Tests whether secular structural reproduction can recover the kibbutz lift. State-secular intentional-community / housing-cooperative / structural-reform cases worldwide are in scope. If any reaches cohort TFR ≥4.0, the religious-vs-structural ambiguity resolves toward "structural only".
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
Cross-domain — retrospective: Schultz at Starbucks (2008 return) shows all three signals present and tracks success cases.
Tests cross-domain mechanism transfer. Validates if multi-level + voluntary + mispricing are present in non-sports contexts.
lab:finding/strategic/2026/asymmetric-underdog-inversion/v1
Indiana 2026 season (Cignetti year 3): 10+ wins, top-15 finish, no collapse.
Tests year-3 spotlight resilience. Falsified if record below .500 or Cignetti fired.
lab:finding/strategic/2026/asymmetric-underdog-inversion/v1
P5 — Framework retrospectively explains a non-OECD historical recovery within 2027
Pick one non-OECD historical case (e.g., post-Soviet Russia 2000-2015 modest recovery, 19th-century Quebec) and test framework prediction. If recovery is via condition reformation, framework holds; if via primarily-policy means, framework wounded. Resolution: explanation power 70-90% predicted; <50% wounds the framework.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1
Hungary TFR 2027
Falsifier band
[1.2, 1.65]
Tests tempo-without-cohort interpretation. Bands derived from underlying cohort trajectory once tempo is removed.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-hungary-divergence/v1
Korea TFR 2027
Wide band reflects lowest-low position making small movements possible in either direction.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-hungary-divergence/v1
Korea TFR 2027
Tests whether Branch 6 produces sustained tempo bounce or whether the underlying cohort trajectory continues. Aligned with the Korea-Hungary pair finding's Korea prediction.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-lockin/v1
P1 — Quebec TFR 2027 in [1.40, 1.65]
Predicted band
[1.4, 1.65]
Falsifier band
[1.3, 1.75]
Tests whether the 2009-2024 reversion continues or whether Quebec finds another tempo lift. Framework predicts plateau in 1.4-1.6 band absent condition reformation.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
Anti-prediction: no sub-replacement country produces sustained cohort recovery to TFR 1.7+ via spending alone over 2025-2035.
Tests the broader claim across the OECD declining-fertility cluster. Falsifying example: any nation crosses 1.7 cohort fertility for the 1990-1995 birth cohort with the spending-without-narrative-without-refugia structural profile.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-hungary-divergence/v1
Korea cohort fertility for women born 1990-1995 (when complete, ~2030)
Predicted band
[0.85, 1.1]
Tests the locking-not-lever claim for Branches 4-5 directly. If completed cohort fertility is meaningfully above 1.10, the locking framing weakens for those branches.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-lockin/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
Anti-prediction: no currently-active intervention package across declining-fertility OECD countries produces sustained cohort recovery (post-tempo) over 2025-2035.
Aligns with the Korea-Hungary pair finding. Cross-references the broader population-decline corpus.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-lockin/v1
France cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.55, 1.7]
France is the historical pronatalist exemplar. Period TFR has fallen 2.03→1.66 across 2010-2024. Cohort projection lands below the falsifier bar despite sustained ~3% GDP family policy.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Sweden cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.6, 1.75]
Falsifier band
[1.55, 1.85]
Sweden often cited as 1980s pronatalist success. Cohort lands near but below 1.70. Critical: even if it crosses the threshold, the wedge attribution is contested (gender + welfare + cultural shifted in concert) — would be a partial falsification at best.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Hungary cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.45, 1.55]
Tests whether the 2010-2021 period TFR rise translated into completed cohort fertility. The Korea-Hungary finding’s tempo-without-cohort interpretation predicts no.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Czechia cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.45, 1.6]
Falsifier band
[1.35, 1.75]
Czechia’s 2010-2021 uptick was substantial in period terms but disproportionately tempo-driven (catch-up from 1990s postponement). Cohort projection lands below the falsifier bar.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Germany cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.45, 1.55]
Falsifier band
[1.35, 1.7]
Germany’s 2008-2021 stabilization is well-documented but did not produce a substantial cohort lift. Migration cohort interactions complicate the wedge attribution.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Japan cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[1.25, 1.4]
Falsifier band
[1.15, 1.55]
Japan’s family-policy expansion accelerated post-2015 but the cohort still tracks the long-run decline. The locking branches in marriage/employment institutions are the binding constraint.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
Israel cohort fertility (1990-1995 cohort, ~2030 completion)
Predicted band
[2.7, 3.05]
Predicted ABOVE 1.70 — but this does NOT falsify the meta-prediction. The wedge is religious-community structure (Haredi, religious Zionist), not policy spend. Documents the thesis: structural-cultural substrate is the lever; policy is downstream.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
P1 — Haredi 1990-95 cohort completes ≥6.0
Cohort closure ~2030 (women born 1990-95 reach age 40 with ≥95% completion). Falsified if completed cohort < 5.5. The seven-condition stack predicts maintenance of the documented 1955-1985 floor.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1
P3 — Mormon Utah 1985-95 cohort completes ≥2.5
Cross-case extrapolation from 5-6/7 condition count. If Mormon Utah falls below 2.2, the cross-case framework is wounded — either the count is wrong (overestimated) or the relationship is weaker than this finding claims.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1
P5 — Korean rural Christian sub-pop cohort TFR ≥1.3 (vs Korea overall ~0.7)
Tests whether partial condition presence (2-3/7) produces partial recovery. If Korean rural Christian sub-population produces the same ~0.7 TFR as Korean Seoul, the conditions framework fails to explain within-Korea variance — a wounding result.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1
P1 — Hutterite cohort 1985-95 sustains ≥6.0
Hutterite case is the strongest cross-validator: same structural conditions as Haredi, entirely distinct religious tradition (Anabaptist vs Orthodox Jewish). If religion-specific framing were load-bearing, patterns should diverge; framework predicts they do not.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P2 — Amish cohort 1985-95 sustains ≥6.0
Plain-community demographic studies + US Census tracking. Population growth ~3% annually doubles every ~22 years; framework predicts continued sustained-recovery-band fertility.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P4 — Israel-Arab Muslim cohort 1985-95 lands ~2.5
Tests transitional-band trajectory. Conditions weakened from 4-5/7 (1960s) to 3/7 (now). Framework predicts continued decline toward Israeli-secular floor as remaining conditions weaken further.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P5 — Korean rural Christian cohort 1985-95 lands ≥1.3
Hypothesis to test, not confirmed case. If Korean rural Christian sub-population produces ~0.7 like Korean Seoul (no condition-driven lift), the framework fails to explain within-Korea variance — wounding result. Documentation is partial; this case is in the hypothesis-to-test category.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P1 — Mountain gorilla Virunga ≥1200 by 2030
Predicted band
[1200, 1400]
Falsifier band
[1100, 1500]
Sustained-recovery case at 6/7 conditions. Framework predicts continued growth while conditions hold. Falsified if 2030 population <1100 (which would imply condition-decay we have not yet detected).
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P2 — Atlantic cod NW Atlantic stays <50% recovery target through 2030
Failure analog. 30+ years moratorium without recovery is the framework prediction. Falsified if SSB ≥50% of recovery reference point by 2030 — which would imply conditions are reforming despite below-Allee density.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P3 — Iberian lynx >2500 by 2030
Predicted band
[2500, 3200]
Falsifier band
[2000, 3500]
Sustained-recovery case under continued connectivity expansion. Population grew 94→1668 across 2002-2024 at average 16% annual; framework predicts continued growth as habitat-network strengthens.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P4 — Vaquita reaches functional extinction by 2030
0/7 conditions; <10 individuals (2024). Framework predicts functional extinction. Falsified if 2030 population ≥10 (which would imply some condition recovery we have not detected).
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P5 — NA right whale <320 by 2030
1-2/7 conditions; declining 2-3% annually. Framework predicts continued decline absent restoration of behavioral-cultural transmission and aggregation density. Ship-strike reduction alone (an external-suppression removal) is not predicted to reverse the trend without condition restoration.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P6 — Boreal caribou: ≥60% of monitored herds decline despite intact ≥4/7 conditions through 2030
Framework-boundary test. If herds with intact structural conditions still decline, the external-suppression-dominance claim is supported. If herds recover with intact conditions despite climate change, the framework over-claims and needs revision.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P7 — California condor: ≥30% wild-wild reproduction by 2030
Intervention-substitution test. Wild-wild reproduction (both parents wild-fledged) is the indicator that structural conditions have reformed autonomously. <15% would suggest intervention dependence remains; ≥30% would suggest the framework's "autonomous reformation requires above-threshold conditions" claim holds with intervention as an effective bootstrap.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P2 — Quebec cohort 1990-1995 completes in [1.40, 1.65]
Predicted band
[1.4, 1.65]
Cohort completion test — distinguishes tempo from cohort. The 2002-2009 period TFR lift was tempo; cohort fertility for women born 1990-95 should land in the 1.4-1.6 band per the framework. Falsified if cohort >1.80 (genuine recovery) or <1.30 (worse decline than projected).
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1
P5 — Rural Catholic-traditional vs urban secular Quebec sub-population gap stable or widening
Tests within-Quebec sub-population divergence per framework prediction. Two-tailed falsifier: gap closing 30%+ (conditions don't matter within Quebec) OR widening beyond 40% (selection effects dominate over conditions).
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1
Meta-prediction: zero OECD sub-replacement countries produce cohort fertility ≥1.70 for women born 1990-1995 via primarily-policy means by 2035.
Single-falsifier-suffices design. One clean policy-driven positive case overturns the necessary-but-insufficient framing.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1
P2 — Aggregate Haredi TFR ≥5.5 through 2035 despite share rising 13%→22%
Tests whether urbanization-driven decline operates inside the Haredi sub-population as it expands. If the structural conditions are load-bearing, growth does not weaken the conditions; if conditions are sample-selected (selection-into-community), growth dilutes the structural integrity.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
P8 — Anti-prediction: zero marine teleost stocks recover above 50% B(MSY) without conditions reforming, by 2035
Single-falsifier-suffices design. Tests whether the Allee-threshold claim generalizes across marine teleost stocks. If any stock that collapsed below 0-1/7 recovers to 50% B(MSY) within 30 years without active aggregation-restoration intervention, the framework's autonomous-reformation impossibility claim is wounded.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1
P4 — Religious-community vs secular sub-population gap widens 10-25% by 2035
Framework predicts continued cohort-fertility divergence (Mormon Utah, Haredi, Amish, Hutterite sustain; secular cohorts continue declining). Two-tailed falsifier: gap closing 30%+ (conditions don't matter) OR widening beyond 50% (selection effects dominate over conditions) both wound the framework.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1
P7 — Cross-case super-linearity sustains through 2040
Slope from 0-2 conditions to 5+ conditions vs slope from 5+ to 7. Framework predicts at least 3× ratio (super-linear). Falsified if relationship becomes linear (ratio ~1.0) or sub-linear in cumulative data through 2040.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1
P2 — Mormon Utah TFR drifts toward 2.0 over 2026-2040
Framework predicts continued condition decay (C3 alternative-status structure weakening as professional achievement competes with religious-scholarship status; C7 exit cost weakening) produces continued TFR drift. Falsified if 2040 Utah-Mormon TFR ≥2.5 (no decay measurable), supporting a "religious-community structure is exempt from condition-decay" reading.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1
P3 — Quebec's 5%-GDP family policy produces no sustained cohort recovery to ≥2.0 by 2040
Single-falsifier-suffices. Quebec is the most informative policy-without-conditions test case (subnational government, sustained 5% GDP, 36-year window, no external mobilization confound). If the static-negative thesis fails anywhere, it should fail in Quebec. It hasn't through 2024.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
P4 — Anti-prediction: zero rapid-secularization Catholic-tradition jurisdictions recover to ≥2.0 sustained 5+ years by 2040
Cross-case generalization. Quebec, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Catholic-Bavaria all underwent rapid post-1960 secularization at varying speeds. Framework predicts none reach sustained TFR ≥2.0 by 2040.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1
P1 — No US TFR exceeds 2.5 through 2050 absent structural-condition reformation
Framework predicts contemporary US at ~1.5-2/7 conditions cannot reach sustained TFR ≥2.5 without reformation of conditions that have been decaying for 60+ years. Falsified if any 5+ year window produces sustained TFR ≥2.5 without external mobilization (war, pandemic) AND without measurable condition reformation.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1
Population Decline
OpenAnti-prediction
P3 — Anti-prediction: zero policy-only OECD recoveries to ≥2.1 sustained 5+ years by 2050
Single-falsifier-suffices design. Tests whether the "policy compensates at margins, cannot create conditions" claim holds across all OECD policy interventions 2025-2050. Hungary, Korea, Italy, Japan, Czechia all in scope. Falsified if any single OECD country crosses 2.1 sustained for 5+ years via primarily-policy means.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1
Strategic Decisions
OpenAnti-prediction
Anti-prediction — any current asymmetric-underdog hire missing one or more signals fails to produce championship-window outcomes within 5 years.
Tests the failure-mode side of the pattern. Requires identifying pre-registered candidates currently in window.
lab:finding/strategic/2026/asymmetric-underdog-inversion/v1