Every Lab finding is pre-registered, version-pinned, and citable. Citation handle format: lab:finding/<domain>/<year>/<slug>/<version>. New here? Read the methodology first.
Hungary spent 6.2% of GDP on family policy and lifted TFR from 1.25 to 1.59. Then it reversed. The pair shows what policy can move and what it can't reach.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-hungary-divergence/v1Six branch points in Korea's fertility decline 1997-2024. Three were levers. Three were lockings. Telling them apart is what makes the path-dependence real.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/korea-lockin/v1A public falsifier register for the necessary-but-insufficient thesis. Eight OECD candidates on the watch list. Resolution: 2030-2035 cohort completion data. Falsifier: any country crossing 1.70 cohort fertility where the wedge is policy spend, not structural-cultural conditions.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/positive-case-search/v1Single-case mechanism dossier on the only OECD-context cohort at national-sub-population scale with documented sustained fertility ≥ 6.0. (Hutterite + Amish are valid peer cases at smaller community scale.) Seven structural conditions identified; counterfactual per-condition removal; cross-case validation across Hutterite, Mormon Utah, Roma, Israel-secular, France, Sweden, Korea, Hungary. Five pre-registered predictions resolving 2030-2040.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/israel-haredi-floor/v1Cross-case validation of the seven-condition structural framework. Six documented sustained-recovery cases (Haredi, Hutterite, Amish, Mormon Utah, Roma, Israel-Arab Muslim transitional) plus one secular failure analog (kibbutz movement). Tests whether the framework generalizes; tests directionality (lift when conditions hold, decay when they weaken). Seven pre-registered predictions resolving 2030-2040.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/refugia-template/v1Cross-substrate test of the seven-condition framework. Ten well-documented ecological cases: 3 sustained recovery (mountain gorilla, Iberian lynx, gray wolf Yellowstone), 2 transitional, 3 sustained collapse, 2 framework-boundary cases (CA condor intervention substitution, boreal caribou external-suppression). Atlantic cod NW Atlantic is the load-bearing failure analog. 8 pre-registered predictions resolving 2030-2035.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/substrate-symmetric-refugia/v1Form 1 detective story applying the seven-condition framework retrospectively to the post-WWII US baby boom (1946-1964 lift, 1964-1976 collapse, 1976-2024 plateau at 1.7-2.1). External validation: framework specified on contemporary cases retrospectively predicts the documented historical recovery within tolerance. Five pre-registered predictions resolving 2027-2050.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/baby-boom-detective/v1Form 5 counterfactual walk applied to Quebec, the steepest documented OECD condition-decay → fertility-decline sequence (TFR 4.0 in 1955 → 1.5 in 1990). Six branch points 1960-1988. Three levers (1960 election; 1965 nationalization; 1968-69 contraception/divorce). Three lockings (secular-marriage normalization; cohort completion; baby-bonus + daycare introduced post-decay). Quebec is also the most informative policy-without-conditions failure case — 5% GDP family policy 1988-2024, no sustained cohort recovery. Five pre-registered predictions resolving 2028-2040.
lab:finding/popdec/2026/quebec-quiet-revolution/v1